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The Libs had their best shot of winning this seat in 2025 with really favourable boundaries and a strong candidate in Katie Allen. Of course, they blew it. This is a seat that is very hostile to Dutton. Glen Waverley was once among the safest areas for the Libs and half of blue-ribbon Higgins was put in. Even in 2007 and 2010, the Libs would have held on with current boundaries. Like neighbouring Menzies, the large and rapidly growing Chinese community will be key for the Libs to win this seat back. Future redistributions will likely push Chisholm into more Labor friendly territory and resemble older iterations. If Chisholm picks up Oakleigh and Clayton, it’s likely the Libs will never win it ever again without an expansion of parliament.
Katie Allen had her own campaign office in Glen Waverley and favourable retributions but still failed to win. This is another glaring example of the Liberals struggling to cut through traditional heartland and how eastern Melbourne seems to be shifting away from them. Unless the Liberals become more moderate then I’d say Labor hold.
Saddening news that Katie Allen has passed away today.
That is very sad news and far too young.
I just saw the news and I am heartbroken for her and her family.
My condolences to her entire family, cancer is a horrible illness and it is unfortunate she was taken from the world by it.
I think this seat would be an example where the pendulum would most likely be significantly different depending on how high the One Nation Vote is. If Liberals remains in the TPP, it would likely remain competitive but if One Nation somehow manages to kick Libs out of the TPP, it might turn it into a Safe Labor seat.
Mark Agreed,
I’d add on Menzies and Deakin as well. A party like One Nation would be electoral poison through this part of Melbourne.
Marh”
Chisholm is practically already a safe seat if you factor in the latest redistribution which saw it change from it’s historic North/South nature to East/West, with the abolished seat of Higgins booths inc favouring ALP. But yes I agree, it will only take a moderate/modern liberal party for it to be competitive. This is a highly educated, diverse, high income voting block that knows the value of their vote.
This is a seat where the 3 main parties (ALP, LIB, GRN) dominate. There’s some support for other minor right-wing parties like Family First due to their socially conservative nature.
Demographically, there is a high percentage of degree holders and high-income earners. It is also culturally diverse. There is a teal-ish or small-L liberal demographic towards the western parts (Glen Iris, Malvern East) – traditionally Liberal-voting but have since shifted away.
@Marh,
“if One Nation somehow manages to kick Libs out of the TPP, it might turn it into a Safe Labor seat.”
There’s no way One Nation will finish in the 2CP. What is electoral poision is if One Nation is tied in with the Coalition or is seen as too close.
@Votante, I acknowledge that is unlikely unless if Federal Liberals became psedudo-extinct. Regarding Family First, most of their base (within Anglo Australians) would have shifted to make One Nation their new home given how recent anti-multiculturalism sentiment has consolidated support for the Australian Right with Christian Right joining the sentiment.
* I mean that the Australian Right has now mostly been consolidated to oppose multiculturalism.